Saturday, December 20, 2008

Making Moon Stone Maple

... and Some Differences

are still more in common than those that distinguish what is happening in these month from the deep crisis of the last century, both technical / financial and economic, come in order:

1. Looking at stock prices in recent years and the path that led to the highest elevations of 2007, we see a reduced volatility and rising every day excursions of limited scope, and before October 29, 1929 was used to observe actions interrelated + 50% in a single sitting. Even the increases and volatility of the last 90 years and the first months of 2000 were significantly more intense the period 2003-2007, in this sense the excitement for the new economy was a decidedly more like the euphoria preceding the '29.

2. The interest rates of maturity of the current crisis are quite different from those of that time, indeed the rates of recent years have been about a ¼ of those who turned in the late 20's / 30's. You must also remember that on the diffusion of stock markets was minimal and not comparable to the present, in fact few and restricted stock markets across the globe, "open outcry" among other things, against the dozens of markets "telematics" in today, which involves a number of players, speed and a number of operations even remotely comparable, almost like move a bullock cart to a Formula 1 car. The economic context in which they gained the recent market losses equity is, strictly speaking, still growing, one, albeit limited, that expansion has little to do with the Great Depression. Until proven otherwise the amount of wealth at the global level continues to grow and the IMF has projected for 2008 and 2009 global growth rates above 4% a year, so even a trace of depression measured.

The very fact that in 1929 the USA is the great flywheel of industrialization, is very different from the framework of a globalized economy with a large number of industrialized countries, both emerging and established, producing and consuming wealth, in a context free-market spread. There are many realities, inter alia, that will limit the damage caused by the crisis, the actors who will remain at the window taking every opportunity to acquire interesting companies at well, just think of the Middle East or to finance major new Chinese investors may make purchases of large American companies in sensational saldo.Grande and substantial is the difference of the countermeasures taken to crisis started: in 1929 the same bankers, to avert a disaster, put your wallet to make purchases on public and sensational listed shares went down in history when JP Morgan, along with other bankers, at a session proclaimed loudly its purchases of securities on the NYSE further, trying to spread optimism, which was never actually sent.

In these days instead of the banks to ask for help to governments and supranational institutions that are currently treating only the symptoms, by injecting large amounts of cash to prevent the collapse, but will endeavor to discuss new and more effective rules for the markets trying to eliminate those carcinogens that financial engineering has introduced in recent years and reducing overall is speculation that the leverage now far too large within the system.

0 comments:

Post a Comment